A Minibus License Was Once Worth Over US$1 million

In Hong Kong, red and green minibuses are seemingly everywhere. Criss-crossing the territory in all directions at breakneck speeds, they carry passengers to destinations not served by the MTR or double-decker buses.

Although many of these vehicles—mainly the red minibuses—are in a state of disrepair, there was a time, not so long ago, when Hong Kong public light bus (colloquially known as minibus) licences were among the most lucrative investments in the world. Indeed, between 2011 and 2013, licence values peaked between HK$8 million and HK$8.5 million (approximately US$1.03 million to US$1.09 million).

In 1976, the Hong Kong government permanently capped the total number of public light buses at 4,350 vehicles. Because no new licences were ever issued, anyone wanting to operate a minibus route had to purchase an existing licence on the open market, creating immense scarcity.

However, a combination of factors eventually made it impossible for many operators to break even. Chief among these was the rapid expansion of the MTR network, which caused daily ridership to dwindle, alongside steadily rising fuel costs.

Nearly a decade after the market peaked, the speculative bubble suddenly burst in the early 2020s. The market value of a minibus licence plummeted from its million-dollar high to between HK$700,000 and HK$900,000 (US$90,000 to US$115,000)—representing a staggering 90% market crash.